Before the COVID-19 outbreak, global solar rooftop market was expected to become a US$ 16200 Million market by 2025. It is a fact that number will witness significant fall due to worldwide production drop. However, residential solar progress trajectory in countries like the US is showing hope for a quick revival of the solar industry in the global setting after we have successfully defeated the viral spread.
The Trajectory for Growth
More than 13 gigawatts (GW) of solar PV capacity was installed in the year 2019, leading total installed solar capacity in the US to reach 77.7 GW, enough to power 14.5 million American homes. And despite, President Trump’s favouritism towards fossil fuel generation and usage, the US has been showing great interest in solar, as seen by increasing demand in not residential markets besides utility-scale ground-mounted and C&I rooftop projects. And surprisingly, solar has accounted for 40% of all new grid-connected electric generating capacity in 2019. While setting a new record for residential solar capacity in 2019 adding more than 2.8 GW in the same year.
It is also expected that total installed U.S. PV capacity will nearly double over the next five years, prior to the expiration of the federal Investment Tax Credit for residential systems and a drop in the commercial credit to 10% (under the current version of the law). Residential solar adoption rate is expected to be a considerable part of this growth.
The residential solar market has been growing 10% quarter-over-quarter and 18% year-over-year. And in Q3 2019 the market installed more than 700 MW(dc) of residential capacity, surpassing its highest quarterly installed capacity peak since 2016.
This growth rate is commendable and also inspiring for other countries with a vision for the solar transition.
Expectations for Growth
Although, the growth predictions have been jumbled by the invasion of threatening COVID-19 that has already brought more than 5 lakh infected cases within the US. However, the decade long resilience shown by the country in regards to solar demand and adoption proves a swift restoration of the industry after successful containment of COVID-19.
Like before, California is expected to lead the residential solar market, however, growth and demand spikes in other states indicate that emerging markets would be holding a significant portion of the growth in next 5 years. From, 5% to 11% growth is expected in the residential solar market due to both emerging markets like Florida, Nevada and Texas.
New drivers for demand have also been indicated to play a major role in increasing demand in the near future. Residential solar PV has had a remarkable decade. From 2010-2020, more than 2 million residential solar panels have been installed in the U.S., supported in large part by the 30% federal Investment Tax Credit. But the ITC is of course only one part of the equation.
However, that interprets that residential solar growth has been boosted by additional incentives, offered by a handful of states in the US. Emerging states are showing growth despite limited incentives and a less favourable solar policy environment. This is but the outset of new policies being born to support solar adoption, which will shift entire US solar industry growth in a monumental way.
The crisis and the threat brought on by COVID-19 is extremely serious and has to be dealt as such. However, we need to understand that we are all in this together and fight together to prevent, contain, and defeat this crisis at the earliest for a bright future ahead!